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| Title | Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Nigeria |
| Author |
Diao, Xinshen Nwafor, Manson Alpuerto, Vida Akramov, Kamiljon T. Salau, Sheu |
| ORCID | http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4357-0508 Akramov, K.; http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-1670 Diao, Xinshen; |
| Year | 2010 |
| Abstract | This study uses an economy-wide, dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the ability of growth in various agricultural subsectors to accelerate overall economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria over the next years (2009-17). In addition, econometric methods are used to assess growth requirements in agricultural public spending and the relationship between public services and farmers' use of modern technology. The DCGE model results show that if certain agricultural subsectors can reach the growth targets set by the Nigerian government, the country will see 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture and 8.0 percent growth of GDP over the next years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more than halving the 1996 poverty rate of 65.6 percent and thereby accomplishing the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). This report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and prioritizing growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsectoral level: (i) the size of a given subsector in the economy; (ii) the growth-multiplier effects occurring through linkages of the subsector with the rest of the economy; (iii) the subsector-led poverty reduction-growth elasticity; and (iv) the market opportunities and price effects for individual agricultural products. In analyzing the public investments that would be required to support a 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture, this study first estimates the growth elasticity of public investments using historical spending and agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth data. The results show that a 1 percent increase in agricultural spending is associated with a 0.24 percent annual increase in agricultural TFP. With such low elasticity, agricultural investments must grow at 23.8 percent annually to support a 9.5 percent increase in agriculture. However, if the spending efficiency can be improved by 70 percent, the required agricultural investment growth becomes 13.6 percent per year. The study also finds that investments outside agriculture benefit growth in the agricultural sector. Thus, assessments of required growth in agricultural spending should include the indirect effects of nonagricultural investments and emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of agricultural investments. To further show that efficiency in agricultural spending is critically important to agricultural growth, this study utilizes household-level data to empirically show that access to agricultural services has a significantly positive effect on the use of modern agricultural inputs. |
| Series Name | IFPRI Discussion Paper |
| Series Number | 954 |
| Publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Place of publication | Washington, D.C. |
| Language | English |
| Record Type | Discussion paper |
| Peer Reviewed - PR or Non-PR | Non-PR |
| Subject - country location |
NIGERIA WEST AFRICA AFRICA |
| Subject - keywords |
Poverty reduction Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) Agricultural growth Public investments Millennium Development Goals (MDG) agricultural services market opportunities Total Factor Productivity (TFP) nonagricultural investments modern agricultural inputs low elasticity Agricultural development agricultural investments Development strategies |
| JEL Descriptors | C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
| IFPRI Descriptors |
IFPRI1 GRP32 |
| IFPRI Division | DSGD |
| Access Rights | Open Access |
| Associated dataset | http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/IFPRI/faces/study/StudyPage.xhtml?globalId=hdl:1902.1/15648&studyListingIndex=1_74b29cc98291106c390626ef38ff |
| Display Notes | Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Director General's Office of IFPRI were merged into one IFPRI�wide Discussion Paper series. The new series begins with number 00689, reflecting the prior publication of 688 discussion papers within the dispersed series. The earlier series are available on IFPRI�s website at http://www.ifpri.org/category/publication-type/discussion-papers. |
| LOC call number | IFPRIDP00954 |
| Physical description | 72 pages |
| Times cited-- Google Scholar | http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=8183042167637988085&as_sdt=20005&sciodt=0,9&hl=en |
| RePEc Downloads | https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/954.html |
| Requests | mailto:ifpri-library@cgiar.org |
| CONTENTdm file name | 719.cpd |
| Date cataloged | 2016-09-07 |
| Date modified | 2016-09-07 |
| OCLC number | 861347742 |
| CONTENTdm number | 718 |
Description
| Title | ifpridp00954 14 |
| Access Rights | Open Access |
| Requests | mailto:ifpri-library@cgiar.org |
| CONTENTdm file name | 648.pdfpage |
| Date cataloged | 2015-03-06 |
| Date modified | 2015-03-06 |
| CONTENTdm number | 647 |
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