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Object Description
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| Title | Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
| Subtitle | a spatial equilibrium model analysis |
| Author |
You, Liangzhi Diao, Xinshen |
| ORCID | http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-1670 Diao, Xinshen; http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7930-8814 You, Liangzhi; |
| Year | 2006 |
| Abstract | In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers’ reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa. |
| Series Name | DSGD Discussion Paper |
| Series Number | 40 |
| Publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Place of publication | Washington, D.C. |
| Language | English |
| Record Type | Discussion paper |
| Peer Reviewed - PR or Non-PR | Non-PR |
| Subject - country location |
NIGERIA WEST AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA |
| Subject - keywords |
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling Small farmers Spatial analysis (Statistics) Animal diseases avian flu Avian influenzavirus Poultry Economic situation Prices production |
| JEL Descriptors |
Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis, Prices C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
| IFPRI Descriptors |
IFPRI1 Disaster Prevention and Recovery ReSAKSS |
| IFPRI Division | DSGD |
| Access Rights | Open Access |
| LOC call number | DSG DP40 |
| Physical description | 47 pages |
| IFPRI Web link | http://www.ifpri.org/divs/dsgd/dp/dsgdp40.asp |
| Requests | mailto:ifpri-library@cgiar.org |
| CONTENTdm file name | 35339.cpd |
| Date cataloged | 2015-11-11 |
| Date modified | 2015-11-11 |
| OCLC number | 778454124 |
| CONTENTdm number | 35338 |
Description
| Title | dsgdp40 1 |
| Access Rights | Open Access |
| Requests | mailto:ifpri-library@cgiar.org |
| CONTENTdm file name | 35291.pdfpage |
| Date cataloged | 2015-03-10 |
| Date modified | 2015-03-10 |
| CONTENTdm number | 35290 |
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