The study showed that El Niño no longer strikes the same fear as it used to, even in the agricultural sector where the negative impacts of the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events are within living memory. The widespread drought associated with the El Niño event of 2015/16 (subsequent to this study) may, however, reverse this trend and promote greater interest in the role of ENSOs in seasonal forecasts. There is little demand for El Niño-specific forecasts outside of agricultural research. However there is evidence for the use of seasonal forecasts in the agriculture, water and disaster preparedness and response sectors in South Africa.
Vincent, Katharine; Cull, Tracy; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Conway, Declan; Dalin, Carole; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Fallon, Amy; and Landman, Willem. 2016. Improving effective use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa. SAWHEWS Project Note 1. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/130333